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By Tara-Nicholle Nelson, Esq., FrontDoor.com | Published: 12/01/2008
"We're out with the dithering, we're in with a bang," Austan Goolsbee, a senior Obama economic adviser, said on CBS' Meet the Press.
President-elect Barack Obama and his economic team have left no doubt that their immediate first priority after the inauguration will be to pass an economic stimulus package.
But, as Joe Biden said in the 2008 vice presidential debates, past is prologue. So, to understand the potential power of the federal government's role in creating a solution to the foreclosure/housing crisis, you must have some understanding of what governmental responses have already been taken to this crisis and why they have fallen short. This is not old-school Bush-bashing; rather, it illuminates what Obama's team has observed doesn't work and, thus, indicates the need for an extreme response.
Early on, the Bush administration (like many) didn't realize the full extent of the problem and did nothing. Then, indirect measures intended to address declining home values were put in place, like eliminating the tax penalty on homeowners who sold their homes for less than they owed. This gave the banks no incentive to agree to write off mortgage debt on upside-down homes, though, so it had little effect. Similarly, the members of the administration-assembled HOPE NOW alliance of private mortgage lenders failed, in practice, to follow through on promises of reducing homeowners' mortgage balances and fixing interest rates. Homeowners who called the hotline were more frequently encouraged to cancel the cable bill or get a second job.
The second-generation Bush housing packages did reflect some growth. The Economic and Housing Development Act of 2008 increased FHA loan limits, allowing buyers access to federally insured, low-down-payment mortgages in an otherwise credit-crunched mortgage market. There were also tax incentives for first-time homebuyers, the Fed reduced interest rates in an effort to stimulate lending and homebuying, and lenders were given incentives to make less extreme writeoffs.
Over the last six months, the national economic lexicon has taken a massive shift, from helping homeowners to billion-dollar bailouts. The destabilization of the banking and automotive industries threatens to explode already high unemployment levels to record levels in 2009 without effective intervention. Many would-be homebuyers have been stopped in their tracks by unexpected threats to their jobs, and by the devaluation of the traded asset portfolios from which they planned to pull their down payment funds.
The bank bailout, while agreed by most experts to be necessary, has simply prevented disaster, not resolved the problem. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's recent 60-day foreclosure moratorium applies only to mortgages insured by Fannie and Freddie; it's a lower percentage of subprime and troubled mortgages than many erroneously believe.
Enter Obamanomics.
The Obama administration has not fully articulated its bailout plan, but it promises to be big and bold. What has been pledged includes several features with potentially major crisis-relieving potential, including:
These two items would do all but force lenders and loan servicers to work with homeowners to modify their loans into mortgages they can pay over the loan term. Additionally, a moratorium on all foreclosures would prevent a flood of bank-owned properties onto the market for the first quarter of 2009, allowing some of the unsold housing inventory to be sold and potentially supporting home values.
Further, recognizing that skyrocketing unemployment will only result in more homeowners unable to pay their mortgages and fewer qualified buyers, Obama's team is proposing:
Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., has said the cost of the new stimulus package could equal or surpass the $700 billion bank bailout. What the plan lacks in specificity and frugality, though, it doesn't lack in confidence. After gathering input and creating a plan, Obama declared on Nov. 24, "We're going to be able to shape a rescue."
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