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The Last Year for Best Buying Opportunities

Considering buying a home? Take advantage of low prices and interest rates in 2009

By Tara-Nicholle Nelson, Esq., FrontDoor.com | Published: 12/01/2008

The real estate market differs from the stock market in (at least) one particularly important way. Market conditions do not affect all consumers identically. When people say that the real estate market is "bad," they usually mean it's bad for sellers. By definition, a market that is bad for sellers is good for buyers. From that perspective, all the catastrophic housing market headlines and statistics we've seen in 2008 could actually be read as banners advertising some incredible opportunities for buyers!

It's hard to succinctly articulate what it is about the 2008 market that made it such a buyer bonanza; the list of reasons is too long. Nearly every factor that impacts whether the market is favorable to buyers or sellers turned in favor of buyers this year, cumulatively creating a perfect storm of buyer-friendly market conditions that made 2008 the best buyer's market for real estate in recorded economic history:

  • Falling prices reset the affordability of homes nearer to alignment with the average family's income;
  • Increased inventory of homes on the market -- including bank-owned foreclosure and short sale listings -- meant more choices for buyers and more competition/longer market times for sellers;
  • Interest rates fell from the mid-7-percent range, to the 6-percents, and now are hovering in the high 5's (with the Fed clucking about more possible reductions before year's end); and
  • While mortgages were harder to get than in recent years past, buyers with decent credit scores and as little as 3 percent downpayments could qualify for great rates on 30-year-fixed government-insured loans, making getting a loan still much easier for the average buyer than it was in past down cycles.

From tax credits to Fed rate reductions to loan modifications and foreclosure moratoria, proposed solutions to the housing crisis abound. Though everyone hopes these tactics succeed, they are likely to take a good portion of 2009 to take effect, meaning that the best buyer's market ever could still have a good few months or even the greater part of a year.

A number of indicators suggest that buyers may have at least the better part of 2009 to get in on good prices and great interest rates:

  • Foreclosures still to come. Lest you think foreclosures have already wreaked as much havoc as possible on the housing market, know that FDIC Secretary Sheila Bair predicts that as of November 2008, there are another 4.4 million foreclosure prone mortgages with rates and payments scheduled to reset between now and 2011. Even with optimal governmental and lender intervention, expect to see another 3 million foreclosures nationwide. These properties will continue to provide seller competition and downward price pressure on the housing inventory.
  • Interest rates. Though the Fed has slashed interest rates repeatedly throughout 2008, it is expected to slash them by another half point at its Dec. 16, 2008, rate-setting meeting, and to keep them low or continue to lower them throughout 2009 to do what it can to keep credit flowing.
  • Overflowing inventory. Basic supply and demand principles dictate that before prices can take an upswing, the excessive number of homes on the market must be sold. The absorption rate is the fancy economic measure that states how many months it will take for current inventory levels to be absorbed, based on buyer activity vis-a-vis the number of homes on the market, with an absorption rate of 5 to 6 months considered a "normal" market, while a rate of 7 months or greater indicates a buyer's market. Absorption rates in many American markets were in the 20-40+ month range (!) at the beginning of 2008; while they are on the decline in most areas, until they get down to the 5 to 6 month range, expect prices to continue to fall.

If you are a bargain-hunting buyer trying to time your own home purchase with the narrowing window of opportunity in the real estate market, there are two critical considerations for you to note:

  1. Real estate market cycle timing is hyper-local. Sounds econo-complicated, but this just means that market conditions vary widely state-by-state, city-by-city and even by neighborhood or ZIP code within the same city. There are neighborhoods that are actually already back on the upswing, price-wise. Generally speaking, the current real estate value decline is reversing itself first in dense, desirable metropolitan neighborhoods with good public transportation and then, the market stabilization is moving outward in a wave from the urban job centers. If you're going to try to get in on this market cycle, make sure you get and stay in touch with a local Realtor who can keep you briefed on monthly market changes in the specific areas in which you want to buy or sell.
  2. Don't procrastinate. Because mortgage qualifying and house hunting are taking a lot longer than they used to, buyers looking to take advantage of favorable market conditions should start the process now, as it may take a few months to get into a home. You don't want to kick yourself for waiting too long and missing the opportunity, literally, of a lifetime.

Read the Top 10 Things to Expect in the Housing Market in 2009:

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