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Regaining Consumer Confidence in 2009

Despite current conditions, most Americans are hopeful for the economy

By Tara-Nicholle Nelson, Esq., FrontDoor.com | Published: 12/01/2008

For such an ethereal, intangible concept, consumer confidence has a massive impact on the real estate industry. When consumers have high hopes for the market and their futures, they buy more homes (and other stuff). That buying activity drives prices higher, and fuels employment, which makes buyers even more confident; it feeds on itself in that way. Similarly, though, when consumers lack confidence in the markets, people who would otherwise be buying hold off. That drives prices down, and makes even more people refrain from buying in hopes that prices will go down even further, and so on, and so forth in a nasty snowball effect.

So, why the confidence in consumer confidence for 2009? Because the end appears to be in sight. Though 2008 was an emotional rollercoaster with extreme lows in global markets and events, including the year-end tragedy in Mumbai, there were also extreme market point increases (after the election, key appointments by the incoming administration and around the Fed rate cuts) that demonstrated the market's underlying hopefulness that things won't always be the way they are right now.

Most Americans understand that the economic recession we're currently in, in the words of President-elect Barack Obama, "will get worse before it will get better." Nevertheless, most do believe it will get better. The Consumer Confidence Index rose to 44.9 percent in November, from October's all-time low of 39.5 percent. Consumers agreed with economists that the economy will continue to experience troubles in the first half of 2009, but they seemed to think that things will then improve.

The survey's details showed that people's future hopes for income increases and the job market increased slightly, while their short-term plans to make major purchases decreased. In the words of Wachovia Economics Group analyst Adam York, "everyone thinks things are going to get better, but no one wants to be the first in the mall."

Barring any major industry implosions, consumer confidence should continue to creak upward throughout 2009. Most experts, including the heads of the Fed and the FDIC, have predicted that the current recession should end in 2009. Informed consumers know this and will be anticipating "the bottom" and the recovery as the year goes on.

Additionally, in some markets, like California, while home prices remain low or continue to fall, the number of actual purchase transactions has doubled and even tripled in the last quarters of 2008. As news of the absorption of excessive home inventory spreads, it has had the snowball effect of inspiring activity amongst other buyers, including many who had been waiting for the market to bottom out. This effect should spread to other markets, as their housing inventories are absorbed, aided by the Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac 60-day moratorium on foreclosures which is already in effect, and the planned post-inauguration 90-day foreclosure moratorium, which should cover those homes left out in the Fannie/Freddie freeze.

Finally, just as the election and various interest rate hikes got "yes" votes from the stock market, one of the most immediate indicators of consumer confidence, the Obama administration's planned middle class rescue and economic stimulus package should also lift confidence levels.

What does all of this mean for home sellers? Better times ahead; as the year goes on, prospective homebuyers should grow more confident in the wisdom of buying a home. In fact, some might be tempted to wait until the second half of 2009 to put their homes on the market. If you decide to wait, though, do so with the understanding that the mortgage market may continue to tighten, which could make it tougher for buyers to buy your home. Also, if even one major American industry fails in 2009, or any of a number of other possible world events occurs, this precarious confidence could tank.

Read the Top 10 Things to Expect in the Housing Market in 2009:

  1. Continued market adjustments
  2. Action from the Obama administration
  3. More assistance programs for homeowners in danger of foreclosure
  4. Some calm to the chaos of the banks' restructuring
  5. Thorough reviews of mortgage applications
  6. Low prices and low interest rates
  7. Cool tech tricks and tools for the real estate obsessed
  8. Wiser consumers
  9. Leaner, greener homebuying
  10. An increase in consumer confidence

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